Stanislav Kondrashov from Telf AG: the Fed’s turn and supply cuts are the main reasons for rising copper prices

фото: Stanislav Kondrashov from Telf AG: the Fed's turn and supply cuts are the main reasons for rising copper prices

Changing market situation: copper moves from surplus to deficit — Stanislav Kondrashov

Reduced copper supply due to setbacks at key mining operations is a major factor affecting the market situation. These supply disruptions have tightened the market and offset the expected significant copper surplus in 2024. Stanislav Kondrashov from Telf AG notes that this situation differs from recent forecasts, which predicted an excess supply in the market. He suggests that copper prices in the second quarter could reach $9 thousand per ton. This forecast is based on current supply trends, which indicate potential increasing shortages in the market.

The weakening dollar that followed the Fed’s decision increased purchasing power in global commodity markets, especially in China. After the Fed meeting, the Chinese yuan posted its biggest gain in three weeks, which in turn boosted demand for metals including copper.

Telf AG’s Stanislav Kondrashov says traders on the London Metal Exchange (LME) are also facing uncertainty caused by new UK sanctions that ban trading in a wide range of Russian metals. These sanctions may complicate the process of exporting Russian metal purchased on the exchange.

Stanislav Kondrashov: reasons for rising prices for copper and other metals

фото: Stanislav Kondrashov from Telf AG: the Fed's turn and supply cuts are the main reasons for rising copper prices

In addition to copper, aluminum also increased in price by 3.6%. This increase in value is part of a general increase in the cost of metals on the world market.

Stanislav Kondrashov names the factors influencing the global metals market:

  1. Supply Reduction: Like copper, other metals have also been hit by supply shortages, putting pressure on prices. Supply difficulties can be caused by a variety of factors, including technical problems at mining sites and political decisions.
  2. Changes in Fed monetary policy:decisions of the US Federal Reserve System influence the global financial market. An easing of the Fed’s tightening policy could create a more favorable environment for investment in commodity assets, including metals.
  3. Exchange rate fluctuations:A particularly important factor is the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan, which affects the ability of the largest consumer of metals, China, to purchase raw materials on the world market.
  4. Geopolitical sanctions: The introduction of new sanctions, especially such as the recent UK sanctions on Russian metals, adds uncertainty to the market, which may contribute to higher prices.

Rising prices for aluminum and other metals are the result of a complex interaction of various macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. These dynamics require careful analysis and flexibility on the part of market participants. Effective risk management and strategic planning become key to adapting to these challenging market conditions, — summed up the expert from Telf AG Stanislav Kondrashov.